Friday, August 10, 2007 - 8:00 AMCOS 145-1: Transmission of canine rabies and implications for control
Katie Hampson1, Jonathan Dushoff1, Daniel T. Haydon2, Sarah, C. Cleaveland3, and Andy P. Dobson1. (1) Princeton University, (2) University of Glasgow, (3) University of Edinburgh
Disease transmission, the most critical process underlying infectious disease dynamics, is typically estimated from population patterns of disease incidence. Using extensive detailed data on rabies in Tanzania we estimate transmission from observations of rabid animals. Our individual and population level estimates of R0 are remarkably consistent and are comparable with estimates from outbreaks of canine rabies from elsewhere in the world. Individual behaviour can explain important epidemiological features including fluctuations in the epidemic curve and the prolonged epidemic tail. Our low estimates of R0 (~1.2) provide great optimism for the feasibility of canine rabies eradication; however maintaining sufficient coverage through suitably frequent vaccination campaigns will be key, because of high dog population turnover.