Numerous forest dynamics models have been developed to
make reliable long-term and large-scale predictions using available short-term
and small-scale empirical data on forest dynamics. Associated uncertainties in
model projections, if reported, are usually restricted to model stochasticity, variation between plots, or parameter
estimation uncertainty; few, if any, modeler includes the uncertainty due to
model assumptions. Our objective was to quantify these sources of uncertainty
and evaluate if uncertainty due to two very common modeling assumptions (i.e.,
dynamic equilibrium and maximum tree size assumptions) would be greater than
the uncertainties due to the other sources. Apart from forest dynamics modeling,
these two assumptions are pervasive in wildlife management and in ecological
theory in general. We used an individual tree spatially explicit model called
SYMFOR, calibrated for tropical rain forests within the Brazilian Amazon. Our
results suggest that these two assumptions in forest dynamics modeling can
result in significant changes in mean projected timber yield and biomass, both
in heavily logged and unlogged forests. Also, depending on the way these
assumptions are accommodated in the model, contrasting model projections might
emerge. These assumptions also increase overall model uncertainty but, in
contrast to other sources of uncertainty (e.g., model stochasticity,
parameter and plot uncertainty), assumptions are an uncertainty source that
cannot generally be reduced without specific studies targeting them, revealing
key gaps in our knowledge about the ecosystem. The joint analysis
of all these sources of uncertainty indicate that uncertainties
associated with model projections are likely to be greater than the uncertainty
frequently reported.