Monday, August 6, 2007: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
C1&2, San Jose McEnery Convention Center
OOS 5 - Alternative futures for Great Basin ecosystems
Natural and anthropogenic processes are resulting in extensive and rapid land cover and land use changes in the Great Basin. Between 1990 and 2000, for example, human populations of Nevada and Utah increased by 66% and 30%. Such shifts present substantial mangement challenges, especially given the region’s aridity, high proportion (75%) of public land, and concentration of endemic and threatened species. This session will synthesize current efforts to predict changes in land cover and faunal distributions in the Great Basin under different management scenarios. First, we will present an overview of major land cover and land use changes affecting ecological status and restoration potential. Next, we examine alternative future configurations of land cover and vegetation structure, assuming different ecological starting conditions, climate change trajectories, or management actions. Recent models of faunal response to topography and vegetation facilitate predictions of wildife distributions under alternative scenarios. Speakers will address expansion of a native (pinyon-juniper woodland) and non-native (Bromus tectorum) vegetation types, natural and anthropogenic changes in hydrology, and emerging patterns of exurban settlement, and consider the drivers of these changes, ranging from climate to market economics. In addition, speakers will elucidate how spatially explicit models can be used to explain observed land use and land cover change, predict future changes under different sets of rules, and forecast how management alternatives may affect future conditions. Our synthesis draws from both natural and social sciences and applies remote sensing, GIS, and advanced spatial modeling, including Bayesian approaches, to resolve the most effective management tools for restoration. Much of the work presented represents multidisciplinary collaboration between researchers and management agencies. The issues and tools highlighted here are germane to managed ecoregions elsewhere in the United States and worldwide.
Organizer:	Erica Fleishman, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
Co-organizers:	Jeanne Chambers, USDA Forest Service Michael Wisdom, Pacific Northwest Research Station
Moderator:	Erica Fleishman, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
1:30 PM	OOS 5-1		Research and management issues associated with land-cover and land-use changes in the Great Basin Jeanne C. Chambers, USDA Forest Service
1:50 PM	OOS 5-2		Predicting future trajectories of plant invasion with climate change in the western United States Bethany Bradley, Princeton University
2:10 PM	OOS 5-3		Can natives fight back? Evolutionary response to cheatgrass invasion Elizabeth A. Leger, University of Nevada, Reno
2:30 PM	OOS 5-4		Establishing priorities for restoration of riparian streams and meadows Wendy Trowbridge, University of Nevada, Reno, Jeanne Chambers, USDA Forest Service, Dru Germanoski, Lafayette College
2:50 PM	OOS 5-5		Relationship between initial vegetation structure and alternative management scenarios in southwestern woodlands and forests Brett G. Dickson, ForestERA Project, Yaguang Xu, ForestERA Project, Haydee M. Hampton, ForestERA Project, Thomas D. Sisk, Northern Arizona University
3:10 PM			Break
3:20 PM	OOS 5-6		Avian response to changes in structure and composition of riparian and upland land cover in the Great Basin David Dobkin, High Desert Ecological Research Institute, Erica Fleishman, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Jim Thomson, School of Biological Sciences, Ralph Mac Nally, School of Biological Sciences
3:40 PM	OOS 5-7		Effective management strategies for the sagebrush ecosystem based on current trajectories Michael Wisdom, Pacific Northwest Research Station
4:00 PM	OOS 5-8		Mapping the disintegration of Intermountain West ecosystems by invasive grasses: Potential limiting factors Eric B. Peterson, Nevada Dept. Conservation and Natural Resources
4:20 PM	OOS 5-9		Linking spatial data and predictive models to forecast alternative options and futures in managed landscapes John Fay, Duke University, Erica Fleishman, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, David Dobkin, High Desert Ecological Research Institute, Jeanne C. Chambers, USDA Forest Service

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