Understanding the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems (SES) is difficult given the vast complexity that exists within subsystems (e.g. economies and biological communities) and their behavioral components (animals, plants, harvesters, nutrients). Adding to this difficulty is a lack of working knowledge of how social and ecological systems operate together at varying scales and our inability to easily determine  thresholds which might cause a change in system function (either socially or ecologically).  Resilience framework has emerged to shed light on some of the ambiguity found within these systems and as a tool to further investigate potential regime states (a change in how a system operates). Using a novel mixed method approach; this research characterizes conceptual understanding of a model SES, the summer flounder fishery in the Mid-Atlantic, and creates a functional representation of the salient components of the system, and the relationships between these variables through the collection of Fuzzy-Logic Cognitive Maps (FCMs) from multiple stakeholder groups. Further, this study articulates the driving, receiving, and non-essential variables using graph theory indices to analyze structure and overall system dynamics. Additionally, the application of resilience theory applied to the working model elucidates thresholds through variable manipulation which yields potential alternate states based on multiple model scenarios. The goal of this study is to determine if competing stakeholder (social) and ecological interests can be theoretically achieved through system adaptation while maintaining a preferred and expected stability.

Results/Conclusions

Research results indicate; (1) that there are multiple tenuous thresholds within the model SES; and (2) competing stakeholder “preferred” status of the system is not sustainable.