Tuesday, August 4, 2009: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
Acoma/Zuni, Albuquerque Convention Center
OOS 19 - Analytical Methods in Phenology: Causes and Consequences of Phenological Variation Across Scales
All ecological relationships and ecosystem processes can be characterized in terms of change over time. Phenology is the study of the timing of recurring biological events, the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors affecting these events, and the interrelation among temporal phases of the same or different species. In recent years there has been widespread renewed interest in phenological research, largely due to the importance of phenology in detecting climate change and made evident by the efforts of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) to coordinate phenological monitoring among environmental agencies, scientific networks, and professional and citizen scientists. The applications of phenology research extend far beyond climate change and include optimizing the timing of agricultural practices; predicting the onset and intensity of economically-important allergens, pests, and pollinators; planning recreational and ecotourism ventures; and forecasting natural phenomena such as wildfire and disease spread. Since phenology is an interdisciplinary science that integrates multiple biological and geographical scales, many professional and citizen scientists collect phenological data but with different, potentially complementary, goals. However, a variety of analytical techniques are employed at each scale and interpretations of phenological patterns vary (particularly evident at ESA 2008). This session features researchers who interpret phenological patterns and characterize the causes and consequences of phenological variation. Data from professional and citizen scientists will be presented. Speakers will provide insight into data structure and choice of analytical methods, including anova, multiple regression, selection gradient, Bayesian, multivariate, and geospatial. This session will provide insight into the methods by which this burgeoning multidisciplinary field is quantifying natural variation across biological, geographical, and temporal scales.
Organizer:	Brian P. Haggerty, University of California, Santa Barbara
Co-organizer:	Abraham Miller-Rushing, The Wildlife Society and USA National Phenology Network
Moderator:	Abraham Miller-Rushing, The Wildlife Society and USA National Phenology Network
1:30 PM	OOS 19-1		Flowering range changes and warming summer temperatures in an Arizona mountain range Theresa M. Crimmins, USA National Phenology Network, Michael A. Crimmins, University of Arizona, C. David Bertelsen, University of Arizona
1:50 PM	OOS 19-2		Forecasting trends in species phenological responses to global warming: The predictive potential of multi-site data Jenica M. Allen, University of Connecticut, Ines Ibanez, University of Michigan, John A. Silander Jr., University of Connecticut, Richard B. Primack, Boston University, Abraham Miller-Rushing, USA National Phenology Network and The Wildlife Society, Hiroyoshi Higuchi, University of Tokyo, Sang Don Lee, Ewha Woman's University
2:10 PM	OOS 19-3		Flowering phenology and pollen movement in a prairie perennial: Consequences of habitat fragmentation and implications for ex situ conservation Jennifer L. Ison, University of Illinois-Chicago, Stuart Wagenius, Chicago Botanic Garden, Mary V. Ashley, University of Illinois-Chicago
2:30 PM	OOS 19-4		As time goes by: Response of reproductive phenology to growing season length in American Bellflower, with implications for climate change Brian P. Haggerty, University of California, Santa Barbara, Laura F. Galloway, University of Virginia
2:50 PM	OOS 19-5		Using herbarium specimens to study phenological trends in San Diego County California Mary Ann Hawke, San Diego Natural History Museum
3:10 PM			Break
3:20 PM	OOS 19-6		Efficacy of climate models for projecting future phenology changes Benjamin I. Cook, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Edward R Cook, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
3:40 PM	OOS 19-7		Will climate change disrupt synchrony between subalpine plants and pollinators? Jessica Forrest, University of Toronto, James D. Thomson, University of Toronto
4:00 PM	OOS 19-8		Timing of reproduction in selfing and outcrossing desert annual plants: The role of pollinators and herbivores Katharine Gerst, University of Arizona, D. Lawrence Venable, University of Arizona
4:20 PM	OOS 19-9		Growth-mortality relationships of Pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) in space and time Alison Macalady, University of Arizona, Harald Bugmann, ETH Zurich

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