Session: OOS 13 - Forecasting Ecosystem Responses to Elevated CO2: Confronting Models with Long-Term CO2 Enrichment Experiment


Tuesday, August 3, 2010: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
315-316, David L Lawrence Convention Center
OOS 13 - Forecasting Ecosystem Responses to Elevated CO₂: Confronting Models with Long-Term CO₂ Enrichment Experiment
This session focuses on efforts to improve our understanding of how global vegetation will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2. Specifically, we are looking at efforts to benchmark process-based models against long-term experimental data from the Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The talks in this session highlight the improvements made in these models as a result of integration with field experiments as well as the novel insights the models can provide about the results from these experiments. The goals of this session are directly in line with this year's theme for ESA which focuses on global warming as a challenge for the future. The models presented in this session are actively being used to forecast how vegetation will respond to climate change at regional to global scales, including some that can be linked to GCMs and are part of the IPCC reports. The IPCC reports have demonstrated substantial uncertainty in the feedbacks between ecosystems and the atmosphere that determine the long-term trajectory of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature. These models have often made simplifying assumptions about CO2 fertilization effects that are consistent with elevated CO2 research but until now the models had not been challenged to capture the full-range of data from FACE experiments. These tests are particularly important given the growing recognition of the importance of feedbacks such as progressive nitrogen limitation. The core of this session will present results from a NCEAS-sponsored model-data intercomparison project to test a dozen models at two forest FACE sites. These talks will focus on the connections to different biogeochemical cycles (Oren, Parton, Thorton) and the different temporal scales (Kicklighter). We will also highlight the techniques used to bring models and data together (Luo). Additional talks in the session will expand the domain considered to other biomes (Ogle, Twain) and larger spatial scales(Zaehle, Jain, Prentice). The scope of our session is not limited to modelers but aims to highlight what the modeling and field research communities can learn from each other and to clarify what types of processes need to be better understood, and what measurements are currently lacking but are needed in order to improve our ability to predict changes in the global carbon cycle.
Organizer:	Michael Dietze, University of Illinois
Co-organizer:	Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Moderator:	Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
8:00 AM	OOS 13-1	How well are we modeling forest responses to elevated CO₂? Results of the FACE/model inter-comparison project Michael Dietze, University of Illinois, Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma, Ram Oren, Duke University, I. Colin Prentice, University of Bristol, Paul J. Hanson, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
8:20 AM	OOS 13-2	Effects of elevated CO₂ on forest hydrological budget Ram Oren, Duke University, Michael C. Dietze, Harvard University, Thomas Hickler, Lund University, I. Colin Prentice, University of Bristol, Sönke Zaehle, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
8:40 AM	OOS 13-3	Interactive impacts of CO₂ and nutrients on forest production William J. Parton, Colorado State University, Nceas Modelling Group, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
9:00 AM	OOS 13-4	Temporal dynamics of root growth under long-term exposure to elevated CO₂ in the Mojave Desert Derek L. Sonderegger, University of Wyoming and Washington State University, Kiona Ogle, University of Wyoming, Robert S. Nowak, University of Nevada Reno, Scot Ferguson, University of Nevada Reno
9:20 AM	OOS 13-5	Simulating the response of soybean to elevated CO₂ across the Midwest United States: Effects on the surface energy and water budgets Tracy E. Twine, University of Minnesota, Andrew D. B. Leakey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Jarod J. Bryant, University of Minnesota, Katie Richter, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
9:40 AM		Break
9:50 AM	OOS 13-6	Inversion of coupled carbon-nitrogen model parameters against multiple datasets using Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology Yuanhe Yang, Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, Xuhui Zhou, University of Oklahoma, Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma
10:10 AM	OOS 13-7	CANCELLED - An integrated modeling framework for the assessment of multiple global changes on terrestrial productivity Atul Jain, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Xiaojuan Yang, University of Illinois, Miaoling Liang, University of Illinois, Rahul Barman, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
10:30 AM	OOS 13-8	Using FACE observations to constrain regional to global responses to elevated CO₂ Sönke Zaehle, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
10:50 AM	OOS 13-9	The role of CO₂ feedbacks in climate change I. Colin Prentice, Macquarie University
11:10 AM	OOS 13-10	Leaf and nitrogen distribution in sweetgum canopies after 12 years of CO₂enrichment Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Jeffrey M. Warren, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Colleen M. Iversen, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Joanne Childs, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Cassandra M. Bruno, Oak Ridge National Laboratory

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