Forest tree species range shifts under two alternative GCM/scenario climate change forecasts

Background/Question/Methods

Range shifts for 215 tree species were predicted globally following climate changes forecast by the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the Hadley climate model under IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 for the years 2050 and 2100.

Results/Conclusions

Most species' predicted suitable (or fundamental) ranges closely followed or were slightly more extensive than Little's actual (or realized) ranges under present conditions. Maps of Minimum Required Movement (MRM) to return to the closest geographic locations offering suitable conditions in the future show the likelihood of local extinction following climate change. Locations that are the nearest "lifeboats" for large surrounding areas may represent management and conservation targets.