Print PageThe function of Arctic tundra ecosystems is predicted to be impacted by climate change. These changes have the capacity to alter the future state of both the Arctic and the Earth Systems. However, few decade-time scale studies exist to validate this conjecture. We present a novel approach that utilizes results from repeat sampling of plant community composition combined with contemporary functional studies to hindcast the likely change in ecosystem function for coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. In this paper, we integrate ecosystem structural and functional attributes using non-metric multi-dimensional scaling (NMS) to derive predictive models in multivariate space from which the likely change in ecosystem function can be assessed.
Results/Conclusions
Changes in peak growing season land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange, methane (CH4) efflux, soil volumetric water content (VWC), thaw depth (TD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and global warming potential (GWP) have been estimated for a range of plant communities found in the study area. Generally, wet plant communities are increasing in VWC, while moist plant communities are decreasing. Little change was observed in all dry communities. Peak growing season carbon uptake potential appears to have increased approximately 20% between 1.05gC/m²/day and 1.23gC/m²/day in wet plant communities, while moist have decreased 10%. All plant communities remain carbon sinks during peak growing season although respiration and CH4 efflux in wet plant communities have increased; while moist communities have become greater carbon sinks. The specific causes underlining these changes are likely to be a combination of succession, climate change, herbivory, and anthropogenic disturbance.
