Print PagePanicum maximum Jacq. has been identified as an invasive grass species in the southern parts of the United States and in other tropical areas around the world. It is predicted that global warming will cause this invasive grass to recede in some areas in Mexico and expand within the United States due to this species’ climatic requirements and tolerances. An analysis of the potential effects of global change on the present-day distribution of this invasive species was undertaken using the modeling software MaxEnt with climatic variables from the WorldClim climatic database. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A1B, a moderate prediction of climate change, the Canadian model (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and the Australian model (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), were used to make the distributional predictions for the year 2050.
Results/Conclusions
All models indicated that the distribution of Panicum maximum will expand northward into the United States, while also increasing its distribution in currently occupied areas, such as south and central Texas and coastal Louisiana. In contrast, in some areas in Mexico, for example in the Yucatan Peninsula, the species’ suitable habitat was predicted to recede. With these predictions, it may be possible to understand this invasive species better in respect to its climatic limitations. Also, knowing if and/or why the grass is shifting in range will facilitate land-use planners in devising plans on how to minimize the impact of this species on native landscapes.
