Print PageThe arrival of Cactoblastis cactorum (Prickly-pear moth) to North America has raised concern about the potential damage and devastating effect it will have on native Opuntia cactus if it were to reach south Texas and northern Mexico. Opuntia is used as food for humans as well as forage for livestock. It is also used for medicine, erosion prevention and for improving soil properties. Climate change could increase the potential spread of C. cactorum to areas of south Texas and northern Mexico in which Opuntia flourishes. To forecast the range expansion of C. cactorum in south Texas and northern Mexico we used the maximum entropy method, nineteen bioclimatic variables from WordClim, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A1B for the year 2050, the Canadian model (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis), and the Australian model (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation).
Results/Conclusions
All projections showed that for south Texas and northern Mexico there will be an increase in climatic conditions needed to facilitate the spread of Cactoblastis cactorum by 2050. Changes in both temperature and precipitation specifically the precipitation of quarmest quarter, will highly affect the spread of C. cactorum in the study area. Monitoring the spread of C. cactorum in northern and eastern Texas is highly recommended because the route of colonization currently follows the Gulf coastline.
