Print PageNumerous studies have quantified the differences in performance between competing invasive and native species under future climatic scenarios. Here we have compiled these studies, which vary widely across systems and driving variables, and used effect size to estimate the sensitivity of these two groups of species to future conditions. Effect size was calculated as a function of the duration of the experiment and response types were classified into two groups, those that benefited from the treatment, e.g., higher carbon dioxide concentrations, and those that did not e.g., reduced precipitation. Effect size data were analyzed as a function of the magnitude and duration of the treatment following a multilevel framework that allowed us to track the overall response to treatment for the two groups (native and invasive), for each driver variable (temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide, and pH), and for each system (aquatic and terrestrial).
Results/Conclusions
Results across studies seem to indicate that invasive and native species have a different response to the magnitude of the treatment. Overall the invasive group is more responsive to change than the native one. Invasive species will outperform natives if future conditions result on a more suitable habitat, however invasive species will also be affected to a higher degree than natives if the shift is towards less suitable conditions. In summary, sites that will become more suitable under climate change may have a higher risk of invasions, while sites that will become less suitable under the predicted conditions may become more resilient to invasions. These results can inform where to prioritize control and monitoring efforts to prevent or ameliorate biological invasions.
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