OOS 55 - Effect Sizes of Global Change Impacts Across Spatiotemporal Scales and Organizational Levels

Friday, August 10, 2012: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
A106, Oregon Convention Center
Elise S. Gornish, University of California, Davis
Sebastian Leuzinger, Auckland University of Technology
Sebastian Leuzinger, Auckland University of Technology
Making accurate predictions of the effects of global change on ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them has become an important goal for ecologists. Experimental and modeling approaches aimed at understanding the linkages between factors of global change and biotic responses have become numerous and increasingly complex in order to adequately capture the multifarious dynamics associated with these relationships. Constrained by resources, experiments are often conducted at small spatiotemporal scales and at low organizational levels, although some studies have shown that responses at higher levels can be dissimilar. This is especially true for differences between ecological responses to the presence and absence of global change factors, commonly referred to as effect size. Prominent examples include changes in effect size or even a sign reversal as experiments continue over many years or decades, or patterns of decreasing effect size with increasing level of organization (e.g. from leaf to tree). There is an urgent need to synthesize this complexity and to quantify effect sizes and over-arching trends that are valid across large spatial, temporal and organizational dimensions. Studies presented will include discussions of: - evaluating the fit between global models and local causation - the acclimation or downregulation of responses to global change across time - portfolio effects and overyielding effects across organizational scales - effectiveness of top-down vs. bottom-up approaches in global change studies - local vs. global mitigation of global change impacts - how to best integrate assessments of global change across scales
8:00 AM
 Simulating climate change effects at various scales: can usable guidance emerge from an ensemble of outcomes?
Dominique M. Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute and Oregon State University; David Conklin, Conservation Biology Institute; Ken Ferschweiler, Conservation Biology Institute
8:20 AM
 Impacts of shifts in climate means and extremes on alpine butterfly demography
Lauren B. Buckley, University of Washington; Joel G. Kingsolver, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
8:40 AM
 Will invasive species outperform native competitors under global change? Using effect size to assess invasive and native species sensitivity to future conditions
Ines Ibanez, University of Michigan; Jeffrey M. Diez, University of California, Riverside; Cascade J. B. Sorte, University of Massachusetts - Boston; Dana Blumenthal, Rangeland Resources Research Unit; Luke P. Miller, Stanford University; Nicole Molinari, University of California Santa Barbara; Edwin D. Grosholz, University of California; Carla M. DAntonio, University of California Santa Barbara; Sierra Jl Jones, University of South Carolina; Julian Olden, University of Washington
9:20 AM
 Online collaboration to enable research and planning in climate change biology and adaptation science
Jessica J. Hellmann, University of Notre Dame; Kimberly R. Hall, The Nature Conservancy; Nitesh V. Chawla, University of Notre Dame
9:40 AM
9:50 AM
 Ecosystem water fluxes in response to climate warming and biofuel harvest in a tallgrass prairie
Shuli Niu, University of Oklahoma; Rebecca Sherry, University of Oklahoma; Xuhui Zhou, Fudan University; Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma
10:10 AM
 The costs of uncertainty: How the resolution of environmental data affect the predictions of mechanistic models
Ofir Levy, Arizona State University; Lauren B. Buckley, University of Washington; Timothy H. Keitt, The University of Texas at Austin; Michael J. Angilletta, Arizona State University
10:50 AM
 A sensitivity analysis of spatially dynamic population models of global change
Erin E. Conlisk, University of California, Berkeley; Alexandra D. Syphard, Conservation Biology Institute; Janet Franklin, Arizona State University; Lorraine Flint, USGS California Water Science Center; Alan Flint, USGS California Water Science Center; Helen M. Regan, University of California Riverside
See more of: Organized Oral Session