Collaborating with stakeholders to define land-use scenarios that inform landscape simulations in Massachusetts, USA

Background/Question/Methods

Scenario studies have emerged as a powerful approach for synthesizing diverse forms of research and articulating and evaluating alternative socioecological futures. Unlike predictive modeling, scenarios do not attempt to forecast the precise or probable state of any variable at a given point in the future. Instead, comparisons among a set of contrasting scenarios are used to understand the dynamics of complex social-ecological systems. By working with stakeholder groups to define narrative scenarios that are, in turn, used to parameterize simulation models scientists can conduct cutting edge research while increasing the credibility, legitimacy, and saliency of their work.

We are using coupled scenarios and simulations to examine future pathways of landscape change in Massachusetts. We formed a stakeholder group that includes representatives from state agencies (conservation, planning, water and energy); NGOs (forest management, land protection, sustainability); and research institutions (Harvard Forest, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute). The stakeholders first participated in a webinar in which they learned about the research goals, approach and findings to date. This was followed by a workshop at which the stakeholders crafted a set of narrative scenarios that reflected there questions and concerns and the represented plausible trajectories for future.

Results/Conclusions

Our scenario development workshop identified three narratives that bracket a range of plausible futures, looking out fifty years: (1) Free Market Future – Environmental regulations are rolled back; weakened zoning laws allow for proliferating sprawl, subdivisions, and a 125% increase in development; reduced funding for conservation leads to a 25% reduction in conserved land; intensive harvesting increases. (2) Resource-limited Future – As important resources become scarce, society adjusts; demand for woody biomass as an alternative energy increases; demand for local food increases leading to forest clearance for agriculture; increased development of tightly spaced housing. (3) Green Investment Future – Development is strongly targeted towards redevelopment of small cities; protection of forest and farm lands is paralleled by an increase in sustainable harvesting, large forest reserves, and local sources of food. Alternate energy capacity increases; carbon caps are enforced; and use of biomass for fuel increases dramatically.

We are now translating these narrative scenarios into rule-sets so they can inform landscape simulations using the LANDIS-II forest landscape model. The model will quantify and make spatial representations of the consequences of each scenario on forest carbon, species composition, wildlife habitat, and landscape structure.