Future development risk: Projected global impacts by energy and mining on terrestrial biomes

Background/Question/Methods

Global demand for energy and minerals has increased by 25-50 percent over the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. Development to meet these growing demands has resulted in impacts to human health and well-being as well as increased habitat loss and modification and further stress on biological diversity worldwide. Previous global-scale assessments of human land-use change have focused on the effects of agricultural conversion, urbanization, and accelerated climate change. However, development pressure is increasing from energy and mining sectors, with more than $20 trillion in investment projected over the next two decades  This surge in development is expected to steeply accelerate global habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown.

Results/Conclusions

Here, for the first time, we quantified future global patterns of energy and mining development and their potential impacts to terrestrial biomes and their biodiversity. We projected future growth potential for oil and gas (traditional, liquid natural gas, and shale gas), renewable energy (wind, solar, biofuels), and mining (minerals) development. We then examined patterns of potential development on an ecoregional and biome scale in relation to current habitat conversion, legal land protection, species richness and the number of endemic and threatened species. Globally, 15-20% of land areas were estimated to be under threat of energy and mining development. Of these high risk areas, >15% is in addition to already 24% of lands converted to human land uses. Geographical patterns of future development risk coincide with current human impact on land cover, fail to be countered by legal land protection, and affects biologically diverse and threatened regions of the world. Tropical and temperate coniferous forests, tropical dry forests, and Mediterranean biomes were estimated to face the highest development risk. In light of these pending and significant conservation threats, understanding and mitigating the impacts of energy and mining development will be major challenges in the coming decades.