Detecting causality in complex ecosystems

Background/Question/Methods

While everyone knows Berkeley’s 1710 dictum “correlation does not imply causation” few realize that the converse “causation does not imply correlation” is also true. This conundrum runs counter to deeply ingrained heuristic thinking that is at the basis of modern science.  Ecosystems are particularly perverse on this issue by exhibiting mirage correlations that can continually cause us to rethink relationships we thought we understood.

Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate, epidemiology, financial regulation, and much else. Here we introduce a method that can distinguish causality from correlation. It is a radically different empirical approach for leveraging time series information from complex systems of interacting parts.

Results/Conclusions

(see above)