OOS 18-9
Modeling social and ecological processes and carbon outcomes in exurban landscapes

Tuesday, August 12, 2014: 4:20 PM
307, Sacramento Convention Center
Daniel G. Brown, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
William S. Currie, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Sarah Kiger, School of Natural Resources, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Joan Iverson Nassauer, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Scott E. Page, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
Dawn C. Parker, School of Planning, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Rick Riolo, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Derek Robinson, Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
Shipeng Sun, Insitute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN
Background/Question/Methods

Exurban residential settlement, defined as low-density development that is often disconnected from city sewer and water systems, expanded significantly during the last half of the twentieth century. The implications of these development patterns for ecosystem function have not been well documented. Given the relatively large land area covered by exurban development in the US and elsewhere, these lands offer potential for increased carbon storage. The future trajectory of carbon storage in these areas depends on interactions between social and ecological processes that are not well understood. Our research aims at understanding these interactions and processes, and at representing the processes in models that can support both investigation of the drivers of change in carbon storage in exurban landscapes and exploration of economic incentives that might be used to increase carbon storage. We developed a linked agent-based and ecosystem modeling framework, parameterized with household survey data, developer interviews, hedonic modeling of home values from exurban landscapes in SE Michigan, and field-sampled data on vegetation and soil carbon in the same townships.  The agent-based model represents several decision processes affecting development and management of exurban landscapes: (a) land-market interactions leading to land-use change; (b) developer decision making about subdivision design; and (c) homeowner decision making about land management. This model was linked to Biome-BGC, an ecosystem process model, to represent carbon allocation among different vegetation and soil pools in ecological zone types on an annual basis and in response to landscape and management changes carried out in the agent-based model. 

Results/Conclusions

The results highlight the interacting roles of population growth, residential location preferences, and income distributions in the population on the trajectories of carbon storage in an exurban township in Michigan. Amount of carbon storage in exurban residential developments was most strongly influenced by population growth, which affected how much development occurred, but preferences and income influenced carbon storage by affecting the types of development. We also present results from an analysis using the coupled model to evaluate the possible effects of payments to developers aimed at increasing carbon storage. Carbon payments increased carbon storage in exurban developments, but also increased amount of development. Discussion emphasizes the value of coupled modeling approaches in improving our ability to understand dynamics, drivers, and interventions in coupled natural and human systems. Such approaches are useful for considering trade-offs among ecosystem services.

See more of: Enhancing Urban Sustainability: Social and Ecological Dimensions
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