With an anticipated 65% increase in food demand by 2100, it is critical to understand the future changes in crop yields. Previous research suggests that future climate and O3 are anticipated to decrease crop yields, while CO2 is expected to increase yields. However, the net effect of these interacting variables on crop yields has not yet been determined. We use the Community Land Model (CLM) with prognostic crops to determine changes in future wheat, corn, rice, and soybean yields in response to climate, CO2, O3 throughout the twenty-first century.
Results/Conclusions
Results suggest that, on average, crop yields decrease ~4% by 2100 in response to the combination of climate, CO2, and O3. By 2100, CO2 increases crop yields everywhere, whereas climate and O3 decrease yields in most locations, with a notable exception where climate increases crop yields in Eastern China. Wheat and rice yields typically increase in the future, whereas soy yields do not change and corn yields decrease. Additionally, the positive effect of CO2 on crop yields largely does not emerge until after 2050, whereas the negative effect of O3, combined with the negative effect of climate had the strongest impact on crop yields before 2050. These results suggest that crop yields will not increase enough to meet the increased future demand, suggesting that intensification of agricultural management, combined with an increase in the proportion of land devoted to agriculture are necessary to meet the growing demand for food.