COS 69-10 - Geospatial modeling of land cover change in the Chocó Global Ecoregion of South America, one of most rainy areas in the world

Tuesday, August 8, 2017: 4:40 PM
B114, Oregon Convention Center
J. Camilo Fagua and Doug Ramsey, Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT
Background/Question/Methods

The tropical rain forests in the northern west of South America are known as the Chocó Global Ecoregion (CBR). Due to its degree of threat (deforestation) and its high biodiversity and endemism, the CBR is one of the 25 biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities in the world. Three developing countries have territory in the CBR: Panama, Colombia and Ecuador. CBR can also be divided in three main Moist Forest ecoregions. Analyses of Land-use and land-cover change (LULC) in the CBR are a challenge in terms of remote sensors because this area is considered one of the rainiest places on the planet. Furthermore, the availability of high-resolution remote sensor data is low for developing countries. Consequently, the few satellite images available usually have high percentages of clouds. Using a Random Forest classification, we built annual LULC maps in the CBR from 2002 to 2015 relating MODIS data (cloud-free MODIS vegetation index products) after Fourier analysis (as a second cloud correction) to visual interpretations of covers based on reference data of high spatial resolution (WorldView-2, Quick Bird, Ikonos and GeoEye-1). Our aim was to analyze LULC temporal dynamics across this global ecoregion to address the following questions: 1) How LULC varied in time and space cross the CBR? 2) Which one is the balance between deforestation and reforestation? 3) Which are the deforestation drivers

Results/Conclusions

Our LULC maps reached a high accuracy (K=0.9; Sd= 0.01) and showed that reforestation and deforestation increased significantly from 2002 to 2010 cross the CBR. Afterwards, from 2010 to 2015, reforestation decreased significantly while deforestation maintained its significant increase. These general tendencies varied among countries sections and ecoregions. We detected a gradual replacement of forest areas by agriculture covers, mainly grassland, and secondary vegetation during the analyzed time cross the CBR. The comparison among countries showed that 79% (66160 km2) of the CBR forests at 2015 were located in Colombia, 16% (13569 km2) in Panama, and 4.3% (3578 Km2) in Ecuador. Likewise, the analysis by ecoregions indicated Western Ecuador Moist Forest Ecoregion had the 12% (4328 km2) of its area cover by forest, Magdalena-Urabá Moist Forest Ecoregion had the 28% (25797 km2), and Choco-Darien Moist Forest Ecoregion the 67% (56151 km2).