Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are probably one of the best known endangered species globally.  The main cause for the species’ decline during the last 30 years has been loss of habitat loss and the resulting fragmentation of habitat.  Emerging broad-scale threats, such as climate warming may have the potential to significantly impact giant panda habitat and panda survival in the long-term.  We developed simple spatially-explicit habitat models covering the entire giant panda geographic range and used the model to estimate current remaining habitat. We then used global climate models to predict how climate change will affect extent and fragmentation of giant panda habitat by the year 2080.

Results/Conclusions

Our current models show that approximately 28,000 km² potential suitable habitat remains, with only 33 patches greater than 200 km². Over the next 70 years climate change may reduce habitat by 35-40%. Fragmentation indices predict further isolation with a doubling of the mean nearest neighbor distance overall and a reduction in mean patch size ranging from 20-60%.  Our climate modeling results support two of the major predictions of climate change, showing an elevational shift towards higher altitudes and a poleward latitudinal shift. Only a quarter of that future habitat would be protected under the existing protected area system. For the survival of giant pandas in the long term, planning for future protected areas should prioritize areas that are likely to be suitable despite the effects of climate warming.