Tuesday, August 3, 2010: 1:30 PM-5:00 PM
310-311, David L Lawrence Convention Center
OOS 19 - Gaps In Predicting Vegetation Change - Physiological and Genetic Variation And Extreme Events
Changes in climate, as well as direct effects of rising CO2 as a photosynthetic substrate, are inducing changes in the distribution of plant species, as well as their physiological performance, ecological relations (competition, pollination, disease occurrence), and evolution. Prediction of such changes is clearly important for ecology, as also for climatology, via vegetation feedbacks to the carbon, nutrient, and water cycles and regional albedos. Current dynamic vegetation models use climatic responses of vegetation, commonly statistical, with a modest inclusion of physiological responsiveness. The climatic models fail to account for abiotic (and biotic) extreme events, which are poorly characterized, if at all, by gross climatic averages over time and space. Moreover, novel climates are likely to arise, for which there is no basis to estimate plant responses. Rarely included in the models are the direct effects of CO2 on physiological performance, particularly resource-use efficiencies. Neither do models include the full, striking diversity of direct CO2 responses among species. Dynamic models are also limited in their capability to represent time lags, on annual to multi-decadal scales, arising from dispersal dynamics and from rapid changes in community structure in pulse-dominated ecosystems. Finally, there is dramatic evidence of constraint in vegetation responses at the population level and above, as a result of population genetic structure. We review the evidence for vegetation changes, the challenges in proper attribution of vegetation changes, and the capabilities of models, current and future.
Organizer:Vincent Gutschick, Global Change Consulting Consortium, Inc.
Moderator:Hormoz BassiriRad, University of Illinois at Chicago
1:30 PMPlant biogeography: Missing links in physiology, genetics, ecology, and extreme events
Vincent Gutschick, Global Change Consulting Consortium, Inc.
1:50 PMSimulated vegetation feedbacks in the North American monsoon region
Michael Notaro, University of Wisconsin-Madison
2:10 PMRole of competition in vegetation change
Caroline E. Farrior, Princeton University, Ray Dybzinski, Princeton University, Stephen W. Pacala, Princeton University
2:30 PMRole of disease in vegetation change
Karen A. Garrett, Kansas State University
2:50 PMIntra-specific population responses to altered precipitation patterns: Phenotypic differences between genotypes
Meghan L. Avolio, Yale University, Melinda D. Smith, Yale University
3:10 PMBreak
3:20 PMEvolution and vegetation change: Are modern plants predictive of the future in climate changes studies?
Joy K. Ward, University of Kansas
3:40 PMRole of extreme events in vegetation dynamics
H. Wayne Polley, USDA, Agricultural Research Service
4:00 PMGenetic consequences of extreme drought on a foundation tree and its dependent community
Christopher M. Sthultz, Northern Arizona University, Catherine A. Gehring, Northern Arizona University, Amy V. Whipple, Northern Arizona University, Adrian C. Stone, Northern Arizona University, Thomas G. Whitham, Northern Arizona University
4:20 PMPlastic and genetic variation in xylem vessel diameter and wood structure among high and low latitude populations of diploid Larrea sp. in North and South America
Juliana S. Medeiros, University of Kansas
4:40 PMClonal diversity in an expanding community of arctic Salix spp. and a model for recruitment modes of arctic plants
Vladimir Douhovnikoff, Simmons College, Gregory R. Goldsmith, University of California, Berkeley, Ken D. Tape, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Cherrie Huang, Simmons College, Nadine Sur, Simmons College, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, University of Alaska Fairbanks

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